With six gameweeks of the English Premier League season left to run, most of the outright markets are all over bar the shouting. Chelsea, despite a wobble at Old Trafford at the weekend, will presumably still lift the Premier League title, while two of Manchesters City and United and Liverpool will complete the Champions League places alongside Spurs.
Sunderland and Middlesbrough are all but doomed at the bottom, with Swansea and Hull’s battle to avoid the drop likely to go on until the final day.
So for punters, there’s very little interest still out there. But one market which does offer intrigue is that of Top Goalscorer. As things stand Romelu Lukaku leads the race with 24 goals – four clear of the chasing pack, and is thus available at a price of around 1/4 with the bookmakers.
But his Everton side have played one more game than Spurs, and so Harry Kane, on 20 goals, must be of interest. He could easily bag six in as many games, and if Lukaku endures something of a drought between now and the end of the season then he could well Cbe caught.
Kane is available in the Top Goalscorer market at 7/1….so does he represent value?
The genesis of our interest in this bet is Spurs’ unbelievable form. They have won each of their last seven games and 12 in a row at home too. That magnificent seven has come with an aggregated scoreline of 22-4. Kane, the figurehead of this team in outstanding form, is sure to get plenty more goalscoring opportunities between now and the end of the season.
Let’s take a look at Tottenham’s remaining fixtures:
- Crystal Palace (away)
- Arsenal (home)
- West Ham (away)
- Manchester United (home)
- Leicester (away)
- Hull (away)
So not exactly the easiest of run-ins, but this is a Spurs side scoring at a rate of greater than three goals per game at present (21 in 7), so there will be no shortage of confidence. And be under no illusions: they will not have given up hope of catching Chelsea just yet.
As for Kane himself, this is a guy who has notched 20 Premier League goals this term and 26 in all competitions. On seven occasions he has notched two or more in a single game, including three hat-tricks.
Referring back to Spurs’ remaining league fixtures, it is not inconceivable that Kane *could* score two or more against Palace, West Ham, Leicester and Hull – there’s some creative license there of course, but it is not beyond the pale that Kane could net at least five or more goals this term.
Will that be enough to see off Lukaku?
Everton are still playing nicely but with five games left, their chances of finishing in the top four are all but over. The best they can hope for is to gatecrash the top six.
Another factor is that they have a tough run-in, with their away form (W1 D4 L2) already an impediment. Here’s their final five:
- West Ham (away)
- Chelsea (home)
- Swansea (away)
- Watford (home)
- Arsenal (away)
So where are Lukaku’s goals coming from? Certainly Watford at home and Swansea offer possibilities, but you certainly wouldn’t be confident of predicting a goal-laden conclusion to the campaign for the Belgian.
Suddenly, the 7/1 available on Harry Kane overturning that four-goal deficit to become Premier League top goalscorer does not look so outlandish.