With another action-packed gameweek just around the corner, we thought this was as good a time as any to rediscover a pair of statistics that can help form the basis of two key betting markets: cards and corners.
We first had a look at these markets some weeks ago, and were surprised to see that Liverpool headed the ill-discipline table and less surprised to see that Man City dominated the corners stats.
So are the same suspects at the head of the market now, and how will this affect your betting picks this weekend?
Liverpool are no longer the worst behaved team in the Premier League, which is perhaps a legacy implemented by relatively new boss Jurgen Klopp. Instead, it’s Aston Villa who have ploughed to the top of the cards table; we can assume partly due to their new gaffer Remi Garde laying down the law and also thanks to the desperation that comes with propping up the league table.
Tomorrow they take on Norwich City, who occupy 13th in a hypothetical cards league table. The Villains average exactly two cards per game, while Norwich are down at 1.53 per match. Interestingly, we can back Villa with a +1 card handicap at a shade under even money – 5/6 – and that looks appetising value.
The other two teams that make up the Premier League’s naughty boys list are Tottenham and Sunderland, who both boast an average of 1.96 cards per game. And what is interesting is that this week they take on two other teams with a penchant for the poorly timed tackle: Watford and Liverpool respectively.
The Hornets and the Reds are fourth and fifth in the cards table, and when we combine all of the averages we can expect the Spurs/Watford game to see 3.88 cards and the Sunderland/Liverpool clash witness 3.75. As we know, bookmakers like to split the cards market at Over/Under 3.5, and in both of these matches we have a chance to go Over.
These two matches are priced at 5/6 and 10/11 respectively, and you could even double them up at 2.50/1 if you’re feeling lucky!
As far as the corners market is concerned Liverpool are out on their own as the team that enjoys that little quadrant in the four corners of the pitch more than any other. They average 7.29 corners won each game and 4.92 against; a combined tally of 12.21 per match.
As we know Klopp’s team take on Sunderland tomorrow, and the Black Cats sit 18th in the theoretical corners league table, averaging just 4.08 for and 5.83 against. By statistical inference, we would suggest that Liverpool will win 6.76 corners (average of 7.29 and 5.83) and Sunderland will win 4.50 corners (average of 4.92 and 4.08). And so backing the Over 11 corners market is a risk of sorts looking at the data, but the Under 12 market at 4/7 looks far more likely.
Two of the most unforgiving teams in the corner stakes are Chelsea and Man United. The Blues average 5.54 corners per game with the Red Devils at just 4.36. As such, the Under 11 bracket at 8/11 looks ripe for the picking.
Tottenham are third in a hypothetical ‘corners won at home’ table with an average of 7.17, while Watford are bottom of the theoretical ‘corners conceded away from home’ table with 7.55 given away. We’ll be backing Spurs in the race to seven corners at 8/15 then.
And finally, take a look at the Newcastle and West Brom encounter. At home the Magpies average 5.00 corners (skewed massively by their concession column), while on the road the Baggies average 4.50 corners for and against per match. This is likely to be a cagey game too, so the Under 11 market at 4/7 looks sensible.