It’s becoming a rather nice habit, this ‘making a profit’ lark. For the fourth consecutive week, a positive return was achieved by this column last time out; £21.96 in total. As the founders of Enron no doubt once said ‘profit is profit’.
Here is an overview of our results from last weekend’s Premier League action:
- Man City vs Stoke – Man City -1 Handicap (+£8.63)
- Aston Villa vs Southampton – Southampton to Win & Under 2.5 Goals (-£5)
- Bournemouth vs Chelsea – Both Teams to Score (+£8.33)
- Liverpool vs Newcastle – Liverpool to Win & Over 2.5 Goals (-£5)
- Sunderland vs Arsenal – The Draw (+£20)
- Leicester vs Swansea – Under 2.5 Goals (-£5)
- Total: £21.96
We must march on relentlessly, and so once again we’ll stick with the same format: £5 wagers based on selections permed from the form table, rather than the perceptive part of our brain that comes riddled with preconceptions.
Here is said form table:
Now we’ve got our source data, how are this week’s predictions shaping up?
Everton vs Bournemouth
Just three points separate these two teams in our form table, and with neither showcasing overwhelming winning form it is perhaps best to ignore the outright markets here. Look at Bournemouth’s defence: they’re leaking at nearly three goals per game, with the Toffees also being breached at 1.50 per match on average. BTTS is the smart way to go here.
Both Teams to Score at 4/7 (£5 returns £7.85)
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
Two teams with identical records separated only by goal difference in our form table….this has got draw written all over it, hasn’t it?
The Draw at 5/2 (£5 returns £17.50)
Stoke vs Sunderland
Perhaps the toughest match to call this weekend. Stoke are vulnerable right now; perhaps their players are on holiday already (mentally at least)? But can Sunderland take advantage….maybe not, given that they have won just one of their last six. The Potters have been harmed by the loss of Jack Butland in the sticks, but the Black Cats are hardly net-busting at the moment with five in six. One team that doesn’t care against another that is afraid to lose….let low-scoring battle commence.
Both Teams to Score (No) & Under 2.5 Goals at 13/10 (£5 returns £11.50)
Watford vs Aston Villa
Two teams that have scored a combined seven goals in twelve outings….it doesn’t take Stephen Hawking to work out how this one *should* pan out.
Under 2.5 Goals at 4/5 (£5 returns £9)
West Brom vs West Ham
These two sides have drawn a combined 50% of their matches in the data set (six of twelve), so that informs our thinking. The form table suggests the Hammers should win given their points tally, but a win ratio of 33% (two of six) is hardly convincing.
The Draw at 12/5 (£5 returns £17)
Arsenal vs Norwich
Arsenal haven’t lost in their last six, so they surely won’t be beaten here. The question is can Norwich nick a point? Having drawn one of their last six that seems unlikely. Tellingly, Arsenal are scoring two goals per game on average and conceding less than one, while Norwich have scored just four in six. Hence our selection here….
Arsenal -1 Handicap at 4/6 (£5 returns £8.33)