We hate to say we told you so, but our SOTR model has delivered plenty of insights that have been very useful in recent weeks. Manchester City’s ‘blip’, Southampton’s ascent and Hull City’s decline have all been predicted using this data.
What is the SOTR model? That’s easy; it delivers a rating for each Premier League team based upon their shots on target for and against. Naturally, if you’re SOTR ratio is better than 1.00 then that means you are firing in more shots on target than you are yielding – and that should give you a greater chance of winning the game.
Here is a fully updated graphic for the season to date, so let’s see if it can deliver any betting value this weekend.
Saturday 29th October 2016
Sunderland vs Arsenal – Arsenal to Win to Nil (11/8)
Arsenal have recorded twice as many shots on target as Sunderland, with the Black Cats’ toothlessness in attack ‘bettered’ only by Burnley. We know that though – really, only Jermain Defoe represents any kind of threat in front of goal for them, and with Arsenal’s SOTR being a decent but perhaps surprisingly low by their standards 1.35 compared to Sunderland’s 0.44, the Gunners should win without conceding here.
Manchester United vs Burnley – Manchester United to Win to Nil (4/6)
You take a look at Burnley’s SOTR and assume a couple of things: they are pretty poor creatively, and defensively they are yielding far too many shots on target. The upshot is that we have to applaud Sean Dyche’s side for overachieving so markedly, and yet be cautious that they may suffer a tonking sooner rather than later. United, with an SOTR of 1.37, aren’t the side to do that, but they should win simply enough on Saturday.
Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth – Draw (11/5)
These two are separated by just 0.01 in the SOTR rankings….so the draw has to be the bet!
Tottenham vs Leicester – Tottenham to Win (4/6)
Leicester have been the archetypal Jekyll & Hyde outfit so far this season; excellent at home, terrible away. Their SOTR reflects this – they have lost their edge in attack, and Tottenham’s exceptional numbers in the final third mean that they should win here on home soil.
Watford vs Hull City – Watford to Win & Over 1.5 Goals (6/5)
Hull have yielded more shots on target than any other side in the Premier League, hence their ‘goals against’ column being so stacked, while Watford’s SOTR is a shade under where it should be for their league position, but they should prosper here nonetheless.
West Brom vs Man City – Man City -1 (13/10)
These two teams are bobbing along as you’d expect in the SOTR rankings, with City just shy of the 2.00 mark and the Baggies just sneaking along at 0.76. The gulf in class that that represents is rather telling.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool – Liverpool to Win (3/4)
Liverpool’s SOTR is just as impressive as their actual form this term: they have recorded more shots on target than any other team in the Premier League, and only Southampton have been better defensively. So, they have to be fancied to see off Crystal Palace even though their SOTR suggests they are performing better than their current league position.
Sunday 30th October 2016
Everton vs West Ham – Everton to Win (5/6)
The SOTR model unfortunately doesn’t take into account recent form, with West Ham improving measurably in recent weeks and Everton tailing off somewhat. But what it does do is paint a vivid image of the overall picture, and so we still have to get behind the Everton victory here.
Southampton vs Chelsea – Draw (27/11)
There really is very little to choose between these two sides, and while the nature of decimals shows a 0.73 gap between Southampton and Chelsea, the reality is that the Saints have had one shot on target more and conceded six less, so there isn’t much of a gap in quality here at all.