We’ve all been there: that moment when picking out our bets for the weekend’s action that we simply cannot find anything that tickles our fancy in the outright markets.
The temptation is often then to throw caution to the wind and pick out a selection or two that we are simply not confident about. But at this point, you should really turn to the ‘Over/Under’ markets for assistance. The Over 1.5 or 2.5 Goals are two particular favourites as, in truth, we couldn’t give a monkeys about the end result as long as the goals fly in!
These can add great additional value to an accumulator in particular, so who are the teams to watch in English football’s top four divisions?
Played 10; Scored 20; Conceded 17 Clean Sheet = 10%, Failed to Score = 0%
Leicester City are a gift from the ‘Overs’ Gods, having kept just one clean sheet this season and netting an average of two goals per game under new boss Claudio Ranieri, and they have only gone Under 2.5 in one of their last six outings. This weekend they travel to West Brom, so this might be one rare game in which to steer clear of them (more on that later).
Played 13; Scored 18; Conceded 20 Last Five Results: 1-3, 0-2, 2-4, 3-0, 3-0
As you can see from their recent form, it tends to be all or nothing for Wolves; great news for any neutrals watching their matches, not so great for their own fans. They have conceded nine in their last three, but with the likes of the lively Benik Afobe in their ranks, they tend not to struggle finding the net themselves.
Played 15; Scored 25; Conceded 32 Last Five Results: 4-4, 2-1, 0-5, 2-4, 0-1
Colchester fans can’t complain of not getting value for money, as that’s 23 goals they have now witnessed in their last five matches. This weekend’s trip to Doncaster looks goal-den Over 2.5 value too.
Played 15; Scored 30; Conceded 24 Last Five Results: 4-0, 2-3, 1-1, 2-1, 5-3
Peterborough have long been a gift that keeps on giving in the Overs market, and this season they have picked up where they left off last term. The appointment of Graham Westley as manager has brought goals a-plenty and a revival in form (only losing once in their last five).
Played 15; Scored 31; Conceded 27 Last Five Results: 0-1, 3-1, 5-2, 3-2, 3-4
Don’t be afraid to seek out the lower leagues for your Over/Under coupon, as there is plenty of value to be found here too. Morecambe are perhaps the granddaddy of them all, and their complete inconsistency lends itself nicely to the Overs market.
Played 15; Scored 22; Conceded 23 Clean Sheet = 7%, Failed to Score = 20%
Wimbledon’s ‘Goals Scored/Conceded Per Game’ data may not look that revelatory, but look at those stats just below: The Dons keep a clean sheet on average roughly once every 15 matches, and score in four out of every five. That presents plenty of ‘Overs’ potential.
Played 10; Scored 8; Conceded 11 Clean Sheet = 60%, Failed to Score 40%
The ability to keep a clean sheet once every two matches will stand West Brom in good stead in their quest to establish themselves as a mid-table side, whilst at the other end of the pitch they are hardly mind-blowing (top scorer Said Berahino has just three goals to his name this term). Avoid this week due to the visit of Leicester, but do keep them in mind in the future.
Played 13; Scored 11; Conceded 14 Last Five Results: 1-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-1
Just looking at those last five games marks Notts Forest out as perfect Under 2.5 fodder, and despite not winning in their last six outings they never seem to get beaten convincingly.
Played 15; Scored 18; Conceded 16 Last Five Results: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 2-3, 1-3
For punters, it is always great to see an obvious pattern emerging to help us place our bets with confidence. With Rochdale, it is clear that shipping goals became a major headache for them, and a change of strategy or tactics has clearly paid dividends on that front (those three goalless draws in a row are not a typo). Use this information to your advantage.