Not sure about you, but we despise the international break. There is very rarely any betting value to be found as big fish take on minnows and beat them resoundingly. Any matches that are close on paper are given short shrift by the bookmakers.
So how can we add any enjoyment into what could otherwise be a weekend to forget for punters?
Let’s try an experiment, because if you can’t experiment during the international break then when can you. We are going to ‘Dutch’ a pair of correct score punts across five matches, with the philosophy that if two, maybe three of these selections land then we will secure a profit based upon the relatively generous odds that correct score wagers enjoy.
By the way, Dutching means to bet on two outcomes in the same market, which manages risk somewhat and certainly increases your chances of winning. Should either pick land, profit is assured.
So we’ve carefully handpicked five of this weekend’s international matches that have a certain degree of certainty to them in terms of the end result, as that should help us determine the likely outcome as far as the final score is concerned.
So without further ado, here are our correct score betting tips:
Spain vs Israel (Friday, 7:45pm)
This is another game where we fancy a straightforward home victory, and while the Spaniards are better than the Bosnians it also goes without saying that Israel will put up a better fight than Gibraltar.
But Spain’s record in home qualifiers is astonishing: W16 D4 L0 from their last 20 World Cup qualifiers, and W8 D1 L1 from their last ten European Championship qualification matches speaks volumes. Of those World Cup games they conceded in just seven (35%), so we’ll be banking on the Spaniards claiming a clean sheet on Saturday.
But how many will they net? They put two past Albania (away) and four past Macedonia (home), so three looks about the mean figure. Also, Israel lost 1-3 at home to Italy – a side we would put on a par with the Spanish, but have conceded just five in four outings to date.
So, our correct score punts here are 2-0 and 3-0 to Spain, both at 5/1.
Bosnia Herzegovina vs Gibraltar (Saturday, 5pm)
Not the most glamorous fixture in world football granted, but one that does offer that degree of certainty that we crave with correct score betting. Bosnia will win, but by how many?
Gibraltar, for those not in the know, are one of the newest nations to be granted international status by FIFA, and – developing as they are – they have lost every game they have played to date, and pretty comfortably too. In World Cup 2018 qualifying, they have been defeated 0-6 (Belgium at home), 1-4 (Greece at home), 1-3 (Cyprus away) and 0-4 (Estonia away). So already a picture is forming in our mind of how this one will pan out.
Bosnia are a fairly decent side on home soil, and have dispatched Cyprus 2-0 and Estonia 5-0 on their own patch thus far. They possess the undoubted goal threat of Edin Dzeko too, who will be looking to add to his international tally here.
We’ll assume that Gibraltar won’t score, and now the question is guessing how many Bosnia will net. So our correct score picks for this match are 4-0 (5/1) and 5-0 (9/2) to the hosts.
Luxembourg vs France (Saturday, 7:45pm)
Bold statement time: Luxembourg probably aren’t as bad as you might think.
Yes they’ve lost three of their four World Cup 2018 qualifiers to date, but two of those were by single goal margins (3-4 to Bulgaria and 0-1 to Sweden). They also drew 1-1 away from home against a Belarus side that has also held the French to a 0-0 draw.
We wonder if the French psyche is one that only gets up for the big games? A trip away to cold Luxembourg is perhaps not how these cosmopolitan sorts would want to spend their Saturday evening, and the fact they have scored just one goal in two away qualifiers so far perhaps confirms that.
So, our correct score punts here are 0-2 and 0-3 to France at 11/2 and 9/2 respectively.
Azerbaijan vs Germany (Sunday, 5pm)
This is another no-brainer game selection, as quite frankly we don’t expect Azerbaijan will score.
So again we must contemplate how many the stronger side will net. The Germans have put two past Northern Ireland three past the Czech Republic at home, plus three past Norway and eight past San Marino on the road.
Azerbaijan have kept three clean sheets so far, but most telling was their 0-4 defeat in Northern Ireland. They will be stronger on home soil, but we’re still going to back Germany to win 3-0 (9/2) and 4-0 (13/2).
England vs Lithuania (Sunday, 5pm)
Let’s not beat about the bush here: England are generally excellent at getting results on home soil, and the possible switch to 3-4-3 – which worked so well in the friendly with Germany – should aid their cause further.
So straight off the bat we’re going with 3-0 and 4-0 to England at 9/2 and 13/2. Lithuania will prove a game opponent, but their 0-4 defeat in Slovakia was an obvious eye-opener for correct score punters. The loss of Harry Kane should not affect the Three Lions too badly here.