We know how cruel betting on the football can be sometimes, so wouldn’t it be great if we could somehow maximise our chances of winning a decent sum of money without taking any huge risks?
The good news is that you can: with patience, a bit of homework and a dollop of luck. If the thought of turning £10 into £800 in three months of solid betting appeals, read on!
Editors note: All betting comes with risk and even ‘sure things’ can and will lose from time to time. No betting system is guaranteed, so use your own judgement when placing your bets and never gamble more than you can afford to lose.
Over 0.5 Goals
There is no such thing as a dead cert when betting on football; that is a reality that has been proven time and time again. Even so, there are ways in which we can maximise our chances of winning without taking too much of a risk.
The Over/Under markets are popular in that it minimises some of the risk – we don’t care who wins the game, as long as our requisite number of goals is hit.
Taking this to the next level is the Over 0.5 Goal market, in which you are essentially laying against a 0-0 draw. That might sound fanciful, and of course the prices you can get for this are miniscule, but for long-term accumulative profit the numbers really do stack up as we’ll find out later in this article.
But for now, let’s use a sample – the English Premier League fixtures to date – to enhance our understanding. At the time of writing, each of the 20 teams has played 10 matches, and they have recorded the following number of goalless draws:
- 0 – Aston Villa, Sunderland, Bournemouth, Norwich, Chelsea, Stoke, Crystal Palace, Leicester, West Ham
- 1 – Newcastle, Swansea, Arsenal, Man City
- 2 – Watford, Everton, West Brom, Liverpool, Southampton, Spurs, Man United
So nine teams have recorded zero nil-nils (0%), four teams have recorded one (10%) and seven teams have endured two (20%). So even when betting on the worst culprits for stalemates we have an 80% chance of the match not finishing 0-0.
And we use the Premier League as an example just for clarity. But there are some great examples out there – League One (although avoid Rochdale who have now drawn three games in a row 0-0!) and the National League both have goals flying in all over the place.
Another Eye-Opening Example
Now let’s take a look at the 46 matches from the top four tiers of English football played last weekend: there were five goalless draws (9.2%). So, by using the method of random chance, by picking a game from any of the English leagues you would have a 90.8% hope of backing a 0-0. And remember: if we had added in the stats for the Scottish, Italian, Spanish, German leagues and many others, the larger sample size would have seen that percentage of nil-nils fall even further.
And that’s based on a random pick, which is why this betting strategy appeals to more casual punters for whom time is precious. But if you are a conscientious gambler: if you take the time to do some research, you can skew this yet further. We’re talking:
- Average goals per game – ensure your team averages around two goals per match for added security.
- Head-to-head record – does a particular fixture have a habit of goals or not?
- Form – a team that is struggling is likely to ‘park the bus’ against a better team; minimising both teams’ chances of scoring.
- Team news – check that the teams aren’t beset by injuries to their best creative players.
Crunching the Numbers
Now, maths has never been this particular writer’s strong suit, but even with my limited number crunching skills it’s easy to recognise the potential on offer.
Generally, the odds on Over 0.5 Goals in your average match ranges from 1/25 to 1/16. So if we use 1/20 as an average, and use a rolling £10 kitty to get us started, we can expect the following figures:
- Day 1 = £10.50
- Day 2 = £11.02
- Day 3 = £11.57
- Day 4 = £12.14
And so on. Now the bad news is that after a full week of this market we would be turning a profit of just £4.03. But don’t panic: patience is a virtue, and our profits slowly snowball from here. And remember the low risk factor too.
After 15 days we will have doubled our money (£20.61), and from there the sky is the limit:
- Day 30 = £42.67
- Day 40 = £69.46
- Day 50 = £113.08
- Day 60 = £193.34
- Day 70 = £314.88
- Day 80 = £512.85
- Day 90 = £835.33
If there is a lower risk way of turning a tenner into £800 in less than three months then this writer is yet to hear about it.
Some Handy Tools
Betting every single day for three months may sound tricky, but it only takes five minutes or so to pick out your selection with a bit of homework
And remember to keep your bottle! You have a 91% chance each and every day of your bet coming in – never lose sight of that.