Finding value is not always easy to do when having a punt on the football, so often it pays to explore more obscure markets to unearth something of interest.
Take a game where the two sides are something of a mismatch, and so as a result the favourites have been priced prohibitively by the bookmakers. We’ll use the example of Arsenal against Bournemouth at the Emirates Stadium, where the Gunners have been prices at 8/15 to see off the Cherries.
But two things leap out at us. Arsenal’s price is too short to back with any authority, and we also know that Bournemouth are in reasonable form and could be a ‘coupon buster’ here.
So where else can we find value from this game?
Half Time/Full Time
Here is one easy way to find some value. Arsenal to be winning at half time and again at full time is priced at 13/10, so all of a sudden we have an odds against punt in our favour.
And the stats in this example back our wager up too. In 50% of their eight home matches this term Arsenal have been leading at half time….and they’ve gone on to win all of those matches. Bournemouth meanwhile have been losing at home in five of their nine away games….and gone on to lose them all.
So with a bit of simple research online and some market exploration, we have found ourselves some nicely priced value.
Over 2.5 Goals
Some easy research tells us that Arsenal average 2.75 goals per game this season and Bournemouth 3.00, so already our interest in the Over 2.5 Goals market is piqued.
We know that the Gunners go Over 2.5 in 56% and the Cherries in 50%, so the odds are already in our favour, and additional statistics surrounding Bournemouth (33% of matches are Over 3.5, 22% are Over 4.5) give us further confidence.
The Over 2.5 Goals market in this match can be backed at a none-too-shabby 4/6, and it looks exceptional value.
So what else do we know about Arsenal and Bournemouth? Well, they are two of the ‘cleanest’ teams in the league in terms of cards accrued, with Arsenal averaging just 0.94 per game and Bournemouth 1.50.
So if we average those figures out – and we can do so with confidence given that 19 games is a decent data sample – and this match should return 2.44 cards. We can back the Under 2.5 Cards market at 11/8 if we are feeling brave, but the Under 3.5 Cards looks even more of a safe bet and at 5/6 is value enough to be taken.
Imagine a league table that was determined by the average amount of corners won/conceded per game. Well, it makes good reading for Bournemouth fans as their side would be in the Champions League places with an average of 10.71 per match, while Arsenal wouldn’t be far behind them in fourth with 10.47.
These are slightly awkward stats given that the Corners markets are given in halves, but we can go Over 10.5 at 9/10 and Under 10.5 at Evens. The Over 9.5 at 4/7 is a short price but one that looks safe value.
But the point here is that exploring the markets on Oddschecker and opening up any of the wealth of stats sites online can reveal some fantastic value for just a few minutes work. This is the key to long-term profit-making on the football.
We’ve used Arsenal v Bournemouth as our example here, but what can be guaranteed is that each and every game under the sun will have some fascinating betting insights attached to it if you just take the time to look.