We enjoyed a profit of £14.15 from this column last week to add to the £70 from the first outing for our investigation into how perceptions – and not current form – shape our betting. Let’s hope we can keep this run going with a ‘three-peat’ of profit this time around.
We’ve squeezed matters even further this week by introducing a six game form table, rather than the eight game ladder we were using previously. Hopefully this will allow for even more accurate predictions.
Here’s what it looks like:
So now we’ve got our source data, let’s take a look at this weekend’s fixtures and uncover some betting tips to go with each:
Norwich vs Sunderland
Sunderland are the Premier League’s draw specialists at the moment, and with just three points separating them and Norwich in our table that could well be the outcome once again here. The Canaries have avoided defeat in 50% of their outings but only triumphed on 33% of occasions, so we’re happy to back a nervy stalemate here.
The Draw at 23/10 (£5 returns £16.50)
Everton vs Southampton
According to our table (and arguably the ‘real’ one) Everton are the most underperforming side in the division at the moment, and with just one win in their last six it’s no wonder Roberto Martinez is under pressure. The Saints, meanwhile, are overachieving again, and with a win ratio of 50% can be favoured to defeat the Toffees here.
Southampton to Win at 19/10 (£5 returns £14.50)
Manchester United vs Aston Villa
This is clearly the most open-and-shut match of the weekend, and presuming everything goes to plan Man United fans can expect to be celebrating a comfortable victory at Old Trafford come Saturday afternoon. Villa are conceding at a rate of around 2.75 goals per game and not doing the business at the other end; hence the reason for our selection here.
Manchester United -1 Handicap at 4/6 (£5 returns £8.33)
Newcastle vs Swansea
The bookmakers have got this one wrong according to our league table; Swansea should be clear favourites. But hey: we’re not complaining. We could justifiably back the Swans to win outright at 12/5, but with a Draw No Bet kicker we have cover in case Newcastle’s expensively assembled squad actually show some heart and character for once.
Swansea Draw No Bet at 5/4 (£5 returns £11.25)
West Brom vs Watford
One look at our table and you might surmise that West Brom should win this one, but we’re concerned at that low 33% win ratio. Instead, a low goals market looks more likely, with the Baggies scoring/conceding at about one per game and Watford only notching two in their last half dozen. The bookies have priced Under 2.5 Goals accordingly, so we’ve had to look elsewhere for a smattering of value.
Under 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score (No) at 10/11 (£5 returns £9.54)
Chelsea vs Man City
A clash of the titans this one, and given their proximity in our league table (just one point separates them) and their identical goal difference, we may as well back the draw here between two equally-matched sides.
The Draw at 12/5 (£5 returns £17.00)
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Two teams performing admirably at the moment will lock horns at Dean Court on Sunday, and we’re happy enough to avoid the outright market here given Liverpool’s emotionally-draining victory over Borussia Dortmund on Thursday evening. How will that manifest itself here? Who knows. But we’re happy to back Over 2.5 Goals in a clash between two sides who score freely but lack discipline at the other end of the pitch.
Over 2.5 Goals at 19/20 (£5 returns £9.75)
Leicester vs West Ham
A tough one to call this, although West Ham’s penchant for avoiding defeat (they have done so in 100% of their last six league games) suggests they will be a tough nut for Leicester to crack. A draw looks a low-risk strategy here.
The Draw at 13/5 (£5 returns £18)
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
A quick look at the league table and their combined results suggests a draw is the most likely result between these two; spooky, we know. However, even more appealing is Both Teams to Score: Arsenal have leaked ten in their last six, while Palace have notched half dozen in as many games.
Both Teams to Score at 19/20 (£5 returns £9.75)